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A.J. Brown
WR · NE · Bye 11 · Age 29 · 7 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+35.9Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP18.7Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -48μ 71ceil 120
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
175.4
projected fantasy points (σ 65.7)
floor 91μ 175ceil 259
Outcome uncertainty
- bust29%
P10 91 ptsμ̃ 176 ptsP90 260 pts
consensus: 205heuristic: 175regression: 146
Advanced Analytics
85.8
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.15.4
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.10.1
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.65%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.6.3%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 11.6best 211.6YoY ▼ 33.7
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 145 | 88 | 1,496 | 11 | 487% | 211.6 | 12.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | 158 | 106 | 1,456 | 7 | 516% | 183.6 | 10.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | 97 | 67 | 1,079 | 7 | 440% | 149.9 | 11.5 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
212
2022
184
2023
150
2024