About BlitzBoard

BlitzBoard is an independent NFL fantasy war room. It pulls player, roster, and news data from public sources (Sleeper, nflverse, and ESPN) and turns it into draft, trade, and waiver decisions. The numbers you see come from two models that we run ahead of time, not from a black box. Here is how each one works.

VORP — value over replacement

A player's raw projection only matters relative to what you could get for free. VORP measures each player against the replacement level at their position — the projection of the best player who would still be sitting on the waiver wire in a league of your size and starting requirements. A quarterback projected for 280 points is only worth the gap between 280 and the replacement-level QB, because that replacement is the realistic alternative if you pass. Computing VORP this way makes positions comparable on one scale: scarcity, not just point totals, drives a player's draft value.

Monte Carlo — simulated seasons

A single projection hides the range of outcomes a player can actually produce. The Monte Carlo model simulates a full season many times over, re-rolling each player's week-to-week usage, injury exposure, and scoring variance on every run. The spread of those simulated seasons becomes a season-long distribution per player rather than one number.

From that distribution we read off the values on the player pages: a floor (the 10th-percentile season — a realistic bad year), a ceiling (the 90th-percentile season — a realistic great one), and boom / bust probabilities, the share of simulated seasons that land far above or far below the player's expected total. Two players with the same projection can have very different floors and ceilings; that difference is what the simulation surfaces.

How we check it

Both models are validated out-of-sample: we run them against historical seasons and compare their output to what actually happened, rather than fitting to the same data we report on. Fantasy football is genuinely volatile season to season, so treat every projection as a distribution, not a promise. BlitzBoard is a decision aid — the final call on your roster is always yours.

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