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Alvin Kamara
RB · NO · Bye 8 · Age 31 · 9 yrs exp · Depth #2
QuestionableVALUE · VORP
VOR-4.8Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.7Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP158.4Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -85μ -45ceil 75
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
134.9
projected fantasy points (σ 62.3)
floor 55μ 135ceil 215
Outcome uncertainty
- bust53%
P10 55 ptsμ̃ 135 ptsP90 215 pts
consensus: 76heuristic: 149regression: 180
Advanced Analytics
96.2
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.7.5
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.5.9
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.79%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.0%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 12.1best 197.3YoY ▲ 39.3
| Season | G | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 223 | 897 | 2 | 57 | 490 | 154.7 | 10.3 |
| 2023 | 13 | 180 | 694 | 5 | 75 | 466 | 158.0 | 12.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | 228 | 950 | 6 | 68 | 543 | 197.3 | 14.1 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
155
2022
158
2023
197
2024