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DeVonta Smith
WR · PHI · Bye 10 · Age 27 · 5 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+25.3Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP31.0Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -55μ 40ceil 105
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
164.8
projected fantasy points (σ 62.5)
floor 85μ 165ceil 245
Outcome uncertainty
- bust34%
P10 85 ptsμ̃ 165 ptsP90 245 pts
consensus: 191heuristic: 167regression: 137
Advanced Analytics
67.3
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.1.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.12.7
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.9.2
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.72%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.6.5%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 9.5best 159.6YoY ▼ 15.2
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 136 | 95 | 1,196 | 7 | 455% | 159.6 | 9.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 112 | 81 | 1,066 | 7 | 369% | 146.6 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | 364% | 131.4 | 10.1 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
160
2022
147
2023
131
2024