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Trey McBride
TE · ARI · Bye 14 · Age 26 · 4 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+73.9Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl95.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP38.3Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -19μ 42ceil 167
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
169.5
projected fantasy points (σ 72.8)
floor 76μ 170ceil 263
Outcome uncertainty
- bust15%
P10 77 ptsμ̃ 170 ptsP90 263 pts
consensus: 207heuristic: 154regression: 148
Advanced Analytics
53.3
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.2.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.10.1
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.7.7
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.76%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.4%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 6.3best 132.8YoY ▲ 32.3
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 39 | 29 | 265 | 1 | 109% | 32.5 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 336% | 100.5 | 5.9 |
| 2024 | 16 | 147 | 111 | 1,146 | 2 | 458% | 132.8 | 8.3 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
33
2022
101
2023
133
2024