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Justice Hill
RB · BAL · Bye 13 · Age 28 · 7 yrs exp · Depth #2
VALUE · VORP
VOR-48.1Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.7Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP—Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -108μ -54ceil 12
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
91.5
projected fantasy points (σ 47.1)
floor 31μ 92ceil 152
Outcome uncertainty
- bust85%
P10 31 ptsμ̃ 92 ptsP90 152 pts
heuristic: 94regression: 89
Advanced Analytics
34.6
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.9
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.7.9
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.6.3
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.80%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.8%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 4.5best 85.1YoY ▲ 3.8
| Season | G | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | 49 | 262 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 30.0 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 16 | 84 | 387 | 3 | 28 | 206 | 81.3 | 5.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | 47 | 228 | 1 | 42 | 383 | 85.1 | 5.7 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
30
2022
81
2023
85
2024