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Nico Collins
WR · HOU · Bye 8 · Age 27 · 5 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+39.7Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP20.5Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -49μ 54ceil 129
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
179.3
projected fantasy points (σ 69.5)
floor 90μ 179ceil 268
Outcome uncertainty
- bust28%
P10 90 ptsμ̃ 179 ptsP90 269 pts
consensus: 203heuristic: 186regression: 149
Advanced Analytics
75.4
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.7.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.15.0
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.10.2
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.68%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.6.2%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 10.4best 180.4YoY ▼ 37.8
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 66 | 37 | 481 | 2 | 192% | 60.1 | 6.0 |
| 2023 | 15 | 109 | 80 | 1,297 | 8 | 341% | 180.4 | 12.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | 99 | 68 | 1,006 | 7 | 294% | 142.6 | 11.9 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
60
2022
180
2023
143
2024