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Dalton Kincaid
TE · BUF · Bye 7 · Age 26 · 3 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR-7.5Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl95.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP149.5Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -67μ 2ceil 52
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
88.1
projected fantasy points (σ 46.4)
floor 29μ 88ceil 148
Outcome uncertainty
- bust56%
P10 29 ptsμ̃ 88 ptsP90 148 pts
consensus: 108heuristic: 86regression: 71
Advanced Analytics
38.7
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.9.6
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.6.8
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.70%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.4%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 4.6best 77.3YoY ▼ 20.5
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 286% | 77.3 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | 263% | 56.8 | 4.4 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
77
2023
57
2024