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Justin Herbert
QB · LAC · Bye 7 · Age 28 · 6 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+57.1Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl191.0Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP108.5Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -24μ 78ceil 139
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
248.1
projected fantasy points (σ 63.7)
floor 167μ 248ceil 330
Outcome uncertainty
- bust19%
P10 167 ptsμ̃ 248 ptsP90 330 pts
consensus: 273heuristic: 246regression: 226
Advanced Analytics
14.5
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.3.9
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.0.0
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.0.0
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.100%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.8%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.249.9
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.3.4
TD:INTTouchdown-to-interception ratio — quarterback decision quality (INT of 0 → shown as raw TDs).CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 17.0best 285.4YoY ▲ 52.2
| Season | G | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 4,739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 279.3 | 16.4 |
| 2023 | 13 | 3,134 | 20 | 7 | 228 | 3 | 233.2 | 17.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 3,870 | 23 | 3 | 306 | 2 | 285.4 | 16.8 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
279
2022
233
2023
285
2024