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Justin Jefferson
WR · MIN · Bye 6 · Age 27 · 6 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+69.6Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP14.0Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -17μ 82ceil 156
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
209.2
projected fantasy points (σ 67.8)
floor 122μ 209ceil 296
Outcome uncertainty
- bust15%
P10 122 ptsμ̃ 209 ptsP90 296 pts
consensus: 219heuristic: 208regression: 201
Advanced Analytics
100.7
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.2.5
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.14.8
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.10.1
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.68%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.5.4%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.1.3
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 13.4best 240.7YoY ▲ 78.3
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 184 | 128 | 1,809 | 8 | 481% | 240.7 | 14.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | 100 | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | 281% | 136.2 | 13.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 154 | 103 | 1,533 | 10 | 511% | 214.5 | 12.6 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
241
2022
136
2023
214
2024