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AJ Dillon
RB · CAR · Bye 5 · Age 28 · 6 yrs exp · Depth #3
VALUE · VORP
VOR-19.8Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl116.2Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP—Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -79μ -9ceil 39
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
96.4
projected fantasy points (σ 45.9)
floor 38μ 96ceil 155
Outcome uncertainty
- bust67%
P10 38 ptsμ̃ 96 ptsP90 155 pts
heuristic: 102regression: 91
Advanced Analytics
56.6
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.3.8
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.8.6
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.6.0
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.70%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.1%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 7.3best 139.6YoY ▼ 44.0
| Season | G | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 186 | 770 | 7 | 28 | 206 | 139.6 | 8.2 |
| 2023 | 15 | 178 | 613 | 2 | 22 | 223 | 95.6 | 6.4 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
140
2022
96
2023