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Christian Watson
WR · GB · Bye 11 · Age 27 · 4 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR-24.2Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP56.0Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -107μ 21ceil 59
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
115.4
projected fantasy points (σ 64.6)
floor 33μ 115ceil 198
Outcome uncertainty
- bust65%
P10 33 ptsμ̃ 115 ptsP90 198 pts
consensus: 168heuristic: 100regression: 78
Advanced Analytics
47.8
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.7.6
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.16.9
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.9.6
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.57%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.8.6%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 7.4best 123.1YoY ▲ 3.0
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14 | 66 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 234% | 123.1 | 8.8 |
| 2023 | 9 | 53 | 28 | 422 | 5 | 158% | 73.3 | 8.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | 53 | 29 | 620 | 2 | 207% | 76.3 | 5.5 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
123
2022
73
2023
76
2024