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Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · Bye 6 · Age 31 · 9 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+28.3Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl116.2Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP—Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -45μ 36ceil 102
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
144.5
projected fantasy points (σ 57.2)
floor 71μ 144ceil 218
Outcome uncertainty
- bust31%
P10 71 ptsμ̃ 145 ptsP90 218 pts
heuristic: 125regression: 164
Advanced Analytics
87.8
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.8
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.7.4
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.5.9
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.79%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.2.2%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 10.8best 190.6YoY ▲ 85.7
| Season | G | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 213 | 1,121 | 2 | 59 | 395 | 189.6 | 11.2 |
| 2023 | 11 | 142 | 656 | 2 | 30 | 233 | 104.9 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 255 | 1,138 | 5 | 51 | 408 | 190.6 | 11.2 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
190
2022
105
2023
191
2024