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Adam Thielen

WR · Free Agent · Age 35 · 13 yrs exp

NA

VALUE · VORP

VOR-36.2Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl135.4Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP—Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.

Simulated outcome band · P10–P90

floor -97μ -8ceil 24

SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble

99.2

projected fantasy points (σ 47.3)

floor 39μ 99ceil 160

Outcome uncertainty

  • bust78%
P10 39 ptsμ̃ 99 ptsP90 160 pts
heuristic: 111regression: 87

Advanced Analytics

53.5
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.
5.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.
10.6
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.
7.7
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.
72%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.
4.9%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.

CAREER PRODUCTION

career PPG 7.5best 128.0YoY ▼ 36.5
Adam Thielen career production by season
SeasonGTgtRecRec YdsRec TDTgt%PtsPPG
202217107707166292%110.06.5
2023171371031,0144432%128.07.5
20241062486155204%91.59.2

FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON

110
2022
128
2023
92
2024