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Derrick Henry
RB · BAL · Bye 13 · Age 32 · 10 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+82.2Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.7Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP9.8Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -28μ 127ceil 193
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
221.8
projected fantasy points (σ 86.4)
floor 111μ 222ceil 332
Outcome uncertainty
- bust17%
P10 111 ptsμ̃ 222 ptsP90 333 pts
consensus: 261heuristic: 165regression: 240
Advanced Analytics
108.6
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.8
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.10.1
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.8.1
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.81%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.4.1%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.0.4
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 16.1best 317.4YoY ▲ 98.7
| Season | G | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 349 | 1,538 | 13 | 33 | 398 | 269.8 | 16.9 |
| 2023 | 17 | 280 | 1,167 | 12 | 28 | 214 | 218.7 | 12.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 325 | 1,921 | 16 | 19 | 193 | 317.4 | 18.7 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
270
2022
219
2023
317
2024