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KC

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · Bye 5 · Age 30 · 9 yrs exp · Depth #1

Questionable

VALUE · VORP

VOR+59.3Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl191.0Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP103.3Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.

Simulated outcome band · P10–P90

floor -32μ 73ceil 151

SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble

250.3

projected fantasy points (σ 71.5)

floor 159μ 250ceil 342

Outcome uncertainty

  • bust20%
P10 159 ptsμ̃ 250 ptsP90 342 pts
consensus: 280heuristic: 252regression: 219

Advanced Analytics

21.7
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.
5.4
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.
4.0
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.
4.0
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.
100%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.
3.1%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.
272.7
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.
2.5
TD:INTTouchdown-to-interception ratio — quarterback decision quality (INT of 0 → shown as raw TDs).

CAREER PRODUCTION

career PPG 20.0best 416.4YoY ▲ 1.8
Patrick Mahomes career production by season
SeasonGPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDPtsPPG
2022175,25041123584416.424.5
2023164,18327143890280.217.5
2024163,92826113072282.017.6

FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON

416
2022
280
2023
282
2024