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Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR · SEA · Bye 11 · Age 24 · 3 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+55.8Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP5.1Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -53μ 145ceil 164
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
195.4
projected fantasy points (σ 84.7)
floor 87μ 195ceil 304
Outcome uncertainty
- bust25%
P10 87 ptsμ̃ 195 ptsP90 304 pts
consensus: 261heuristic: 164regression: 162
Advanced Analytics
52.5
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.5.2
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.10.8
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.7.6
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.71%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.4.3%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.1.0
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 7.1best 153.0YoY ▲ 66.2
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 93 | 63 | 628 | 4 | 298% | 86.8 | 5.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | 137 | 100 | 1,130 | 6 | 404% | 153.0 | 9.0 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
87
2023
153
2024