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Jalen Nailor
WR · LV · Bye 13 · Age 27 · 4 yrs exp · Depth #2
VALUE · VORP
VOR-50.2Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP147.8Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -110μ -26ceil 10
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
89.4
projected fantasy points (σ 46.7)
floor 30μ 89ceil 149
Outcome uncertainty
- bust86%
P10 30 ptsμ̃ 89 ptsP90 149 pts
consensus: 98heuristic: 94regression: 76
Advanced Analytics
28.1
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.−1.3
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.15.6
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.10.2
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.66%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.10.9%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 4.7best 77.0YoY ▲ 74.1
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 179 | 1 | 40% | 23.9 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 18% | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 15 | 42 | 28 | 414 | 6 | 143% | 77.0 | 5.1 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
24
2022
3
2023
77
2024