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Zay Flowers
WR · BAL · Bye 13 · Age 25 · 3 yrs exp · Depth #1
QuestionableVALUE · VORP
VOR+20.3Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP24.6Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -63μ 43ceil 104
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
159.9
projected fantasy points (σ 65.2)
floor 76μ 160ceil 243
Outcome uncertainty
- bust38%
P10 77 ptsμ̃ 160 ptsP90 244 pts
consensus: 200heuristic: 143regression: 137
Advanced Analytics
61.5
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.6.6
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.12.7
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.8.6
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.67%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.4.1%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 8.0best 135.5YoY ▲ 6.1
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 382% | 129.4 | 8.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | 116 | 74 | 1,059 | 4 | 432% | 135.5 | 8.0 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
129
2023
136
2024