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Christian Kirk
WR · SF · Bye 8 · Age 29 · 8 yrs exp · Depth #5
QuestionableVALUE · VORP
VOR-58.1Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl135.4Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP—Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -139μ -29ceil 22
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
77.3
projected fantasy points (σ 62.9)
floor -3μ 77ceil 158
Outcome uncertainty
- bust82%
P10 -3 ptsμ̃ 77 ptsP90 158 pts
heuristic: 99regression: 56
Advanced Analytics
61.9
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.2.8
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.13.5
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.8.6
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.63%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.4.4%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 8.0best 159.9YoY ▼ 49.4
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 133 | 84 | 1,108 | 8 | 402% | 159.9 | 9.4 |
| 2023 | 12 | 85 | 57 | 787 | 3 | 254% | 93.3 | 7.8 |
| 2024 | 8 | 47 | 27 | 379 | 1 | 153% | 43.9 | 5.5 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
160
2022
93
2023
44
2024