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C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU · Bye 8 · Age 24 · 3 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+1.9Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl191.0Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP158.0Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -62μ 29ceil 66
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
192.9
projected fantasy points (σ 50.1)
floor 129μ 193ceil 257
Outcome uncertainty
- bust48%
P10 129 ptsμ̃ 193 ptsP90 257 pts
consensus: 186heuristic: 203regression: 190
Advanced Analytics
12.2
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.3
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.0.0
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.0.0
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.50%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.3.2%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.244.8
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.2.5
TD:INTTouchdown-to-interception ratio — quarterback decision quality (INT of 0 → shown as raw TDs).CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 15.4best 274.0YoY ▼ 53.6
| Season | G | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 157 | 3 | 274.0 | 18.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | 3,727 | 20 | 12 | 233 | 0 | 220.4 | 13.0 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
274
2023
220
2024