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Courtland Sutton
WR · DEN · Bye 10 · Age 30 · 8 yrs exp · Depth #2
VALUE · VORP
VOR+17.8Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl139.6Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP59.9Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -52μ 8ceil 87
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
157.4
projected fantasy points (σ 54.4)
floor 88μ 157ceil 227
Outcome uncertainty
- bust37%
P10 88 ptsμ̃ 157 ptsP90 227 pts
consensus: 165heuristic: 157regression: 150
Advanced Analytics
57.2
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.5.0
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.13.1
YPRYards per reception — depth/efficiency of completed catches.8.0
YPTYards per target — receiving efficiency per opportunity; a free-data proxy for aDOT × catch quality.61%
Catch %Reception rate — receptions ÷ targets; hands + role reliability.6.0%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.0.6
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 8.2best 159.3YoY ▲ 28.1
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt% | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 109 | 64 | 829 | 2 | 344% | 95.4 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 90 | 59 | 772 | 10 | 330% | 131.2 | 8.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | 135 | 81 | 1,081 | 8 | 415% | 159.3 | 10.0 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
95
2022
131
2023
159
2024