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Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26 · 5 yrs exp · Depth #1
VALUE · VORP
VOR+29.6Value Over Replacement — projected points above a freely-available replacement starter at this position. The core VORP ranking signal.Repl191.0Replacement baseline: the projected points of the last startable player at this position. VOR is measured against this line.ADP90.2Average draft position across public drafts. Compare to the overall rank to spot market mispricings.
Simulated outcome band · P10–P90
floor -96μ 88ceil 155
SEASON PROJECTION · ensemble
220.6
projected fantasy points (σ 97.9)
floor 95μ 221ceil 346
Outcome uncertainty
- bust38%
P10 95 ptsμ̃ 221 ptsP90 346 pts
consensus: 305heuristic: 211regression: 145
Advanced Analytics
17.4
Scrim Y/GScrimmage yards (rush + receiving) per game — total offensive volume, the base usage signal.4.7
YPCYards per carry — rushing efficiency independent of volume.7.6%
TD/OppScrimmage touchdowns per opportunity (carry + target) — scoring efficiency / red-zone role.236.6
Pass Y/GPassing yards per game — quarterback passing volume.2.0
TD:INTTouchdown-to-interception ratio — quarterback decision quality (INT of 0 → shown as raw TDs).CAREER PRODUCTION
career PPG 16.4best 295.6YoY ▼ 116.8
| Season | G | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 4,113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 295.6 | 17.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 4,016 | 21 | 14 | 339 | 4 | 262.5 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2,045 | 11 | 7 | 119 | 3 | 145.7 | 14.6 |
FANTASY POINTS BY SEASON
296
2022
263
2023
146
2024